Wednesday, January 2, 2013

Don’t read this book


Nassim Taleb, of “black swan” fame, has a new book out. It’s called Antifragile: How to Live in a World We Don’t Understand, and purports to explain what makes financial and social systems robust. I haven’t read the book, and probably never will – for reasons that will become apparent below. But I am still tempted to say a few words regarding Taleb’s mode of analysis. In doing this, I’ll follow Pierre Bavard’s advice on “how to talk about books you haven’t read” – without, of course, having read his book either.

If there is one thing that emerges beyond reasonable doubt from the many reviews and profiles creating the obligatory buzz around Taleb’s new book, it is this – he is an arrogant nerd, full of himself and contemptuous of any lesser soul who disagrees with him or whom he suspects of doubting his genius. Which means the title of Taleb’s book is a bit disingenuous – because he thinks he understands the world quite well. So, is there anything significant we can learn from Taleb’s 500+-page opus? My ill-informed guess would be: no. There is much research indicating that social judgment is a matter of emotional attunement, not just of logical analysis. And this is an area in which Taleb seems to have an obvious deficit – in fact, a gaping whole in his mental “matrix” which prevents him from sensing he has one.