Nassim Taleb, of “black swan” fame, has a new book
out. It’s called Antifragile: How to Live
in a World We Don’t Understand, and purports to explain what makes
financial and social systems robust. I haven’t read the book, and probably
never will – for reasons that will become apparent below. But I am still
tempted to say a few words regarding Taleb’s mode of analysis. In doing this,
I’ll follow Pierre Bavard’s advice on “how to talk about books you haven’t
read” – without, of course, having read his book either.
If there is one thing that emerges beyond reasonable
doubt from the many reviews and profiles creating the obligatory buzz around
Taleb’s new book, it is this – he is an arrogant nerd, full of himself and
contemptuous of any lesser soul who disagrees with him or whom he suspects of
doubting his genius. Which means the title of Taleb’s book is a bit disingenuous
– because he thinks he understands the world quite well. So, is there anything
significant we can learn from Taleb’s 500+-page opus? My ill-informed guess
would be: no. There is much research indicating that social judgment is a
matter of emotional attunement, not just of logical analysis. And this is an area
in which Taleb seems to have an obvious deficit – in fact, a gaping whole in
his mental “matrix” which prevents him from sensing he has one.
